APAC Q3 2025 Forecast: Navigating Economic Crosswinds in the Billion-Dollar Luxury Race

As we move into the third quarter of 2025, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) luxury market is at a critical inflection point. The exuberant post-pandemic recovery has been replaced by a more nuanced and challenging economic reality, compelling brands to navigate a landscape of diverging national fortunes, shifting consumer behaviour, and escalating global trade tensions. For leaders in luxury retail, fashion, watches, jewellery, and cosmetics, securing growth in the second half of the year will demand a masterful interpretation of these economic forecasts and, most critically, a decisive strategy to win the intensifying war for talent.

The Q3 Economic & Luxury Forecast: A Region of Stark Divergence

The overarching economic outlook for APAC in Q3 2025 is one of moderated growth. While the region remains a powerhouse, with luxury goods sales projected to grow from US$199 billion in 2024 to US$256 billion by 2029, the immediate path is uneven. This headline strength conceals significant variations across key markets, each presenting a unique set of challenges and opportunities that will directly impact luxury spending.

Here is a breakdown of how key markets are expected to perform:

• China: The market's traditional engine is facing headwinds. Following a period of deceleration, the luxury market is forecast to remain largely flat in 2025. Persistent weak consumer confidence, a sluggish property sector, and the looming threat of US tariffs are creating a cautious "wait-and-see" attitude. While 56% of mainland consumers still intend to increase luxury spending, there is a notable pivot towards experiences and a surge in national pride, favouring domestic luxury brands.

• Hong Kong: The city is navigating a complex transition. The government forecasts modest real GDP growth of 2% to 3% for 2025, supported by a solid external sector. However, the luxury retail sector faces specific challenges. Sales are expected to remain weak due to sluggish domestic consumption and a structural shift in consumer patterns, with residents increasingly spending in other Greater Bay Area cities. Hard luxury sales, including jewellery and watches, saw a 12% year-on-year slide in the first three months of 2025. In response, brands are expected to focus on premium, experience-driven flagship stores to recapture consumer interest, as only 48% of Hong Kong luxury consumers plan to increase spending in 2025, compared to 56% in the mainland.

• Taiwan: The tech-powered economy shows resilience but is not immune to global pressures. Fitch Solutions has moderated its 2025 real GDP growth forecast to 2.8%, citing global headwinds and trade risks. Despite this, the island's luxury market is on a robust growth trajectory, projected to expand at a CAGR of 8% to 11% between 2024 and 2030. This growth is fueled by rising disposable incomes and a strong consumer appetite for high-end apparel, watches, and cosmetics. The key trend for Q3 will be the consumer shift towards sustainability, personalization, and digital integration, demanding a more sophisticated approach from luxury brands.

• Japan: A clear outperformer, Japan's luxury market is being supercharged by a tourism boom and a weak yen. This combination is fueling exceptional demand, particularly in luxury travel and cosmetics. The personal luxury market is projected to be worth US$22 billion, making it a critical hub for global brands.

• Singapore: The Safe-Haven Magnet: Despite a modest official GDP growth forecast of 0% to 2%, Singapore continues to cement its status as a global wealth hub. The city-state's luxury goods market is projected to hit US$528.31 million in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 8.38% through 2029. This resilience is driven by an influx of high-net-worth individuals and a booming ultra-luxury condo market, which saw sales more than double in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year. The market is increasingly shaped by younger, digitally-savvy consumers who now account for 67% of all luxury purchases.

  
  

• Thailand: The Rising Star of ASEAN: Thailand is rapidly solidifying its position as a regional luxury hub, with its market valued at US$4.4 billion and projected to grow by approximately 5% annually through 2028. This growth is powered by a potent combination of recovering tourism—with 35.5 million international arrivals in 2024—and a rising affluent domestic class. In response, Bangkok is undergoing a massive retail expansion, with over 410,000 square meters of new mall space being added between 2024 and 2025 to house new immersive brand concepts.

The Talent Crisis: The Real Bottleneck to Q3 Growth

This varied but promising market outlook is threatened by a severe and worsening talent crisis. Across APAC, the battle for skilled professionals is the primary operational risk that could prevent companies from capitalizing on Q3's economic opportunities. A recent survey revealed that 78% of luxury retailers in the region are struggling to fill critical positions. This "talent war" is defined by a widening skills gap—where digital literacy and data analytics are in critically short supply—and a fundamental misalignment with modern employee expectations around flexibility, purpose, and career development. The challenge is not just finding people, but finding the right people with the sophisticated skills to deliver the personalized, high-touch experiences that define luxury today.

The Winning Playbook: Securing Talent & Growth in H2 2025

Companies that thrive in this complex environment will be those that build a compelling, human-centric talent strategy that goes beyond reactive hiring.

1. Prioritize Strategic Upskilling and Reskilling: The shelf-life of technical skills is shrinking. Leading companies must invest in robust internal training programs focused on digital tools, data analysis, and sophisticated clienteling to empower their existing workforce and build a sustainable talent pipeline.

2. Build a Culture of Flexibility and Purpose: Today’s top talent demands more than a competitive salary. Offering genuine flexibility in work arrangements and clearly articulating the company's purpose and values are now essential tools for attracting and retaining high-performers who seek meaning in their work.

3. Develop Leaders with Executive Coaching: In a volatile market, agile and emotionally intelligent leadership is the ultimate competitive advantage. Investing in executive coaching is a powerful, high-ROI strategy to not only retain high-potential employees but also to equip them with the skills needed to navigate uncertainty. Partnering with an ICF-accredited coach helps leaders enhance their strategic thinking, resilience, and ability to inspire teams. The returns are proven and profound: studies show that executive coaching can yield a 788% return on investment through increased productivity and retention, improve individual performance by 70%, and boost employee retention by 32%. It transforms managers into mentors who can cultivate engaged, high-performing teams capable of driving business growth even in the most challenging economic climates.

The Way Forward

The APAC luxury market in Q3 2025 is a landscape of immense opportunity reserved for the prepared. Success hinges on a dual strategy: astutely reading the divergent economic signals across the region and, most importantly, building a resilient, motivated, and highly skilled team. The brands that invest decisively in their people will be the ones who win the future.

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To win the talent war and future-proof your business, partnering with an expert is critical. Visit us at www.trouve-executive.com to see how our experienced consultants can support your talent acquisition needs. Let our ICF-accredited coaches empower your leaders through world-class executive coaching. Arrange a confidential call or online appointment with us today to explore how we can collaborate for your success.

2025年第三季亞太區前瞻：在價值萬億的奢侈品競賽中，駕馭經濟逆風

隨著我們邁入2025年第三季度，亞太區（APAC）的奢侈品市場正處於一個關鍵的轉捩點。後疫情時代的熾熱增長已逐漸被一個更為複雜且充滿挑戰的經濟現實所取代，各大品牌必須在各國迥異的經濟前景、變幻的消費行為及日益加劇的全球貿易緊張局勢中尋找出路。對於奢侈品零售、時尚、腕錶珠寶及化妝品行業的領導者而言，要在下半年確保增長，不僅需要對經濟預測有精準的解讀，更關鍵的是，必須制定果斷的策略，以在日益激烈的人才爭奪戰中脫穎而出。

第三季經濟與奢侈品市場預測：一個差異顯著的區域

2025年第三季亞太區的整體經濟前景是溫和增長。儘管該地區仍然是全球經濟的火車頭，奢侈品銷售額預計將從2024年的1,990億美元增長至2029年的2,560億美元，但眼前的道路崎嶇不平。這個亮麗的總體數據，掩蓋了主要市場之間的巨大差異，每個市場都面臨著獨特的挑戰與機遇，並將直接影響奢侈品的消費支出。

以下是各主要市場的預期表現分析：

• 中國內地： 作為市場的傳統引擎，正面臨著挑戰。在經歷了一段減速期後，預計2025年奢侈品市場將大致持平。持續疲弱的消費信心、呆滯的房地產市場以及美國關稅的潛在威脅，共同營造了一種審慎的「觀望」態度。儘管仍有56%的內地消費者計劃增加奢侈品開支，但他們的消費重點已明顯轉向體驗式消費，同時國貨品牌的崛起也帶來了新的市場動態。

• 香港： 這座城市正在經歷一場複雜的轉型。政府預測2025年本地生產總值（GDP）將有2%至3%的溫和實質增長，這主要得益於穩健的對外貿易。然而，奢侈品零售業卻面臨著獨特的挑戰。由於本地消費意欲不振，加上消費模式出現結構性轉變——越來越多居民選擇到大灣區其他城市消費——預計零售額將持續疲弱。2025年首三個月，包括珠寶及鐘錶在內的硬奢侈品銷售額按年下滑了12%。為應對此情況，各大品牌預計將專注於開設高端、體驗式的旗艦店，以重新吸引消費者。畢竟，只有48%的香港奢侈品消費者計劃在2025年增加開支，遠低於內地的56%。

• 台灣： 由科技驅動的經濟體展現出韌性，但仍無法完全倖免於全球壓力。惠譽解決方案（Fitch Solutions）已將其2025年實質GDP增長預測下調至2.8%，理由是全球經濟逆風和貿易風險。儘管如此，台灣的奢侈品市場仍處於強勁的增長軌道上，預計在2024年至2030年間，將以8%至11%的複合年增長率擴張。這得益於可支配收入的增加以及消費者對高端服飾、腕錶和化妝品的強烈渴求。第三季度的關鍵趨勢將是消費者對可持續性、個性化及數碼化整合的追求，這對奢侈品牌提出了更精細化的營運要求。

• 日本： 作為市場的明顯領跑者，日本的奢侈品市場正受到旅遊業蓬勃發展和日元疲弱的雙重提振。這兩個因素共同刺激了市場的非凡需求，尤其是在豪華旅遊和化妝品領域。個人奢侈品市場的價值預計將達到220億美元，使其成為全球品牌不可或缺的重要樞紐。

• 新加坡：資金避風港的磁力 儘管官方預測2025年GDP增長僅為0%至2%，新加坡仍持續鞏固其作為全球財富中心的地位。預計到2025年，其奢侈品市場規模將達到5.2831億美元，並在2029年前以8.38%的複合年增長率增長。這種韌性主要由高淨值人士的湧入以及超豪華公寓市場的蓬勃發展所驅動——後者在2025年第一季的銷售量按年增長超過一倍。現時，市場越來越受到年輕、精通數碼的消費者影響，他們已佔所有奢侈品購買者的67%。

• 泰國：東盟的後起之秀 泰國正迅速崛起為區域性的奢侈品中心，其市場價值達44億美元，並預計在2028年前每年增長約5%。這一增長得益於旅遊業的復甦（2024年國際遊客達3,550萬人次）與國內富裕階層崛起的強大組合。為此，曼谷正進行大規模的零售擴張，在2024至2025年間新增超過41萬平方米的商場空間，以容納更多沉浸式的品牌概念店。

人才危機：第三季增長的真正瓶頸

這個充滿變數但前景光明的市場，正受到一場嚴峻且不斷惡化的人才危機所威脅。在整個亞太區，爭奪專業人才是奢侈品企業面臨的首要營運風險，足以阻礙公司把握第三季度的經濟機遇。最近一項調查顯示，高達78%的亞太區奢侈品零售商表示難以填補關鍵職位。這場「人才爭奪戰」的根源在於日益擴大的技能差距——企業極度缺乏具備數碼素養和數據分析能力的人才——以及與現代僱員期望的根本脫節，他們追求彈性、使命感和職業發展。挑戰不僅在於找到人，更在於找到具備精湛技能、能夠提供定義奢侈品體驗的個性化、高接觸度服務的合適人才。

致勝之道：在2025下半年確保人才與增長

要在這個複雜的環境中脫穎而出，企業必須建立一套超越被動招聘、以人為本且極具吸引力的人才策略。

1. 優先進行策略性技能提升與再培訓： 技術技能的保質期正在縮短。領先的企業必須投資於穩健的內部培訓計劃，專注於數碼工具、數據分析和精密的客戶關係管理，以賦能現有員工，並建立可持續的人才儲備。

2. 建立彈性與使命感並重的企業文化： 今天頂尖的人才所追求的，已不僅僅是一份優厚的薪酬。提供真正彈性的工作安排，並清晰地闡述公司的使命與價值觀，現已成為吸引和留住那些在工作中尋求意義的高績效人才的必備工具。

3. 透過「行政教練」發展領袖才能： 在一個動盪的市場中，敏銳且具備高情商的領導力是最終的競爭優勢。投資於**行政教練（Executive Coaching）**是一項高效、高回報的策略，不僅能留住高潛力員工，更能裝備他們應對不確定性所需的技能。與ICF認證的教練合作，能幫助領導者提升其策略思維、抗逆力及激勵團隊的能力。其回報是實實在在且影響深遠的：研究顯示，行政教練能透過提升生產力及員工留存率，帶來高達788%的投資回報，將個人工作表現提升70%，並將員工留任率提高32%。它能將管理者轉化為導師，培養出敬業、高效的團隊，即使在最具挑戰性的經濟環境中也能推動業務增長。

前行之路

2025年第三季的亞太區奢侈品市場，為有準備者提供了巨大的機遇。成功取決於雙軌並行的策略：一方面要精準解讀區內各異的經濟信號，另一方面——也是最重要的一點——要建立一支具備韌性、積極進取且技能高超的團隊。那些果斷投資於人才的品牌，終將贏得未來。

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要在人才爭奪戰中獲勝並確保您的業務能應對未來挑戰，與專家合作至關重要。請瀏覽我們的網站 www.trouve-executive.com，了解我們經驗豐富的顧問如何為您提供人才招聘支援。讓我們ICF認證的教練，透過世界級的**行政教練**服務，為您的領導團隊賦能。立即安排一次保密的電話或線上會議，與我們探討如何攜手合作，共創成功。

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